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Complex motivations in complex situations lead to the collapse of the systems as we knew them / believed them... or thought we knew them.

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From bi-polarity to multi- or rather “messy-polarities” of the world

An analysis of global political developments and lines of conflict since 1989.
Vlad Vexler (Russian exile with stops in Israel, Australia, Tonga, now philosopher & political analyst in London) sharpens our awareness of the disenchantment of our previous political narratives. The unpleasant truth seems to be this: Instead of the new multi-polar world order, we have a fragmented, confusing one "messy" polarity, so one World disorder, which America, our almost 77-year-old "reliable" empire, can no longer stabilize because it itself (TRUMPISM) has become unpredictable. We probably have to accept the bitter truth: our world order (until thought safe) has already collapsed.

In the end he comes to the conclusion that we our Do homework on site must: politicization of citizens, Promote democratization instead of complaining about populism. This order is issued against all island escapes (the ship is on rough seas!) - also of Christian inwardness that waits for the saving Savior! A negative example for us can be the Russian population, who let their dictator do his thing and fled into the apolitical private sphere - until they wake up. But we Germans managed that well between 1933 and 1945.

Analyzed like this Vexler (in English) in his video the complex world situation:
(I tried to transcribe it below, so if necessary, skip the video and read first.)

What has changed?

- There are more players on the field making more plays at the same time.
- And players play in multi-tangles with each other or others at the same time
- So there are changing alliances that no one can predict/calculate anymore

Example: war over Ukraine

Ukraine is becoming the focus of multi-layered conflicts (regional, global blocs).
Apparently the alliances are clear: the West stands by Ukraine, wants it to "exist" and "win" (?), but at the same time does not want to escalate the conflict.
The West wants to see Russia lose, but not too terribly...
Because an absolutely defeated Russia does not help the USA in its imperial conflict with China. Because an absolutely weakened Russia is being driven into the arms of China.

A shaky strategy
Because Ukraine is a tragic victim of this shaky course.
This all plays into the Hamas-Israel conflict (India and China still in the background)


The different motivations behind the conflicts

The 1990s Western myth (adoption of capitalism leads to democratization) has been exposed as a deception. The underlying Enlightenment view of humanity (the sensible, rational person) collapses, because diffuse, conflicting motivations in the "rational" person become apparent:
- Religion
- Mysticism
- Resources
- Territories
- Security
example 1 is the unconstructive outbreak of violence by Hamas in Israel: One aspect of its motivation seems to be the belief in transformation and purification through "redemptive violence" (cf. Walter Wink)
Example 2 is Putin: Can his war be interpreted as a reaction to NATO expansion? Domestic political reasons seem to have driven Putin much more (he acts in such a way that his regime survives) and argues mystically and imperialistically with the aim of overthrowing the (Western) world order.

A rules-based world order appears to have come to an end

With this logic, the Russian attack on Ukraine could be better framed like this: Because there was no rules-based world order, he started the war. Instead: Mr. Putin broke the rules.
And the West has no strategy to deal with it, let alone a Russia policy. Russia is threatening the West with nuclear annihilation and the West has no answer.
We should
- discuss a post-Putin order in Russia. As long as that doesn't happen, we're playing into Putin's terrorist cards.
- Domestically, the West is too busy with its own chaos, the dismantling of democracy!
That's why we have to realistically perceive our own strengthsbefore we can act outside.

2024

The US election (49/51) will - no matter who wins - trigger a legitimacy crisis. This will "imperium americanum" as weak perceived and all other powers will take advantage of it. That's why homework has to be done at home.

  1. Our boat has sailed from the safe harbor onto the open ocean (loss of trust in democratic systems)
  2. What can we do? Don't blame populism, but see the problems alongside it.
    - The Internet as an unregulated public sphere
    - Fluid societies with weakened social ties
    - Exclusion of many (material e.g.)
    - Self-realization ideologies
    People feel lost and are losing trust in all politics
  3. Citizen responsibility means: Understand this complex situation and get involved as part of a solution in your society, not only for the parts that you like, but also take responsibility for the dark sides of your society, the consequences of capitalism, from which you have happily benefited ...etc.

As a bonus track: How Western democracy is entering a new era.

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Example in German of how the multi-conflicts are assessed from the perspective of the “Bundeswehr” (German perspective): “Making our society defensive” is Prof. Massala’s perspective, “it is worth defending this democracy”.

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de_DE
Theologe mit Leidenschaft, transchristentümlich, post-kolonial, historisch-narrativ in Lemgo

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